IEA and OPEC cut oil forecasts as Hormuz stays shut
The IEA and OPEC both trimmed their oil forecasts on Wednesday, blaming the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Crude fell on Thursday after five days of gains.
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Gulf realignment
Symbolic imageWhere things stand
With the Strait of Hormuz still shut, Tehran denies any talks on extending the June truce, while ship counts undercut Trump's "wall of steel" blockade claim. The IEA and OPEC have both cut their oil forecasts over the standoff.
The war with Iran has left the states of the region reworking the order that governs it. According to an FAZ analysis, the centre of gravity is shifting towards a bloc of four states that FAZ describes as a Sunni axis, with Saudi Arabia in the lead. Riyadh's ambition to set the terms of that order is the thread running through the topic. A separate analysis in Jacobin adds a competing reading: the contest between the rulers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is not a detail of the new order but a driver of conflict, feeding wars outside the Arabian Peninsula. Both accounts are interpretations by the respective outlets rather than settled fact.
Timeline in detail
Trump claims total control of Hormuz as Iran denies truce talks
Trump claims total control of Hormuz as Iran denies truce talks
Trump said on Wednesday the United States has "total control" of the closed Strait of Hormuz. Tehran denied the same day that talks on extending the ceasefire are under way.
US helicopter disables cargo ship as Hormuz stays shut
US helicopter disables cargo ship as Hormuz stays shut
A US helicopter fired on a Panama-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday to enforce Washington's blockade of Iranian ports. Trump claimed full control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump demands Iranian reparations as Hormuz stays shut
Trump demands Iranian reparations as Hormuz stays shut
Donald Trump wants Iran to pay compensation for people killed over five decades. Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz shut until its terms are met.
Ankara says Mecca defence pact could widen to Egypt
Ankara says Mecca defence pact could widen to Egypt
Turkey's foreign minister Hakan Fidan says Egypt could join the defence pact signed on Friday by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. Islamabad calls it purely defensive.
South China Morning PostDaily SabahAl JazeeraSouth China Morning Post
Houthis strike Aramco refinery and hit al-Makha port twice
Houthis strike Aramco refinery and hit al-Makha port twice
Houthi missiles and drones struck Yemen's government-held port of al-Makha in two waves on Sunday. The same morning the rebels claimed a drone attack on Aramco's Jazan refinery.
Iran installs IRGC veterans as Hormuz stays shut
Iran installs IRGC veterans as Hormuz stays shut
Iran's supreme leader has put two Revolutionary Guard veterans into top security posts while the Strait of Hormuz stays shut. Washington is betting on pressure, not new strikes.
Ankara says Mecca defence pact carries NATO-style obligations
Ankara says Mecca defence pact carries NATO-style obligations
Turkey's foreign minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday the new Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani defence pact is technically the same as NATO's Article 5, but names no common threat.
Yemen's army counterattacks Houthis as UN warns of wider war
Yemen's army counterattacks Houthis as UN warns of wider war
Yemen's army says it struck Houthi positions on several fronts on Saturday, its first announced counteroffensive in months. Houthi shelling of Marib continued.
Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US conditions after tanker strike
Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US conditions after tanker strike
Tehran says a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz is close but will not itself reopen the waterway. The UAE blames an Iranian missile for Saturday's strike on an Adnoc tanker.
US-Saudi nuclear deal raises proliferation questions
US-Saudi nuclear deal raises proliferation questions
The civil nuclear agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia raises radioactive questions, The Economist reports. No further details of the accord are available from the reporting at hand.
Top US commander seeks off-ramp from Iran war
Top US commander seeks off-ramp from Iran war
Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Dan Caine has privately told other senior advisers to President Donald Trump that airstrikes alone will not achieve Washington's goals against Iran, CNN reported. The US military assesses that continued strikes could trigger Iranian retaliation against allies in the Gulf, while the Wall Street Journal reports that Tehran sees an opening to push American forces out of the region.
Houthi strikes on Yemeni army camps spill over into Saudi Arabia
Houthi strikes on Yemeni army camps spill over into Saudi Arabia
Houthi missiles and drones killed at least 58 Yemeni government soldiers at camps in Marib and Hadramawt on Thursday, the deadliest day since the 2022 truce. The same attacks wounded 11 civilians across the border in Saudi Arabia's Najran region.
US says Hormuz reopening deal is close as Iran presses for transit tolls
US says Hormuz reopening deal is close as Iran presses for transit tolls
A US official said on Friday that Washington expects an Iran-Oman agreement to reopen commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within days. Whether Iran may charge passing ships remains unresolved.
Adnoc reports 15 ships hit in Hormuz as Iranian oil exports stall
Adnoc reports 15 ships hit in Hormuz as Iranian oil exports stall
Abu Dhabi's Adnoc said on Friday that missile and drone attacks have hit 15 of its vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member and wounding 20. Iranian crude exports from Kharg Island have been at a standstill under the renewed US blockade.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign mutual defence pact
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign mutual defence pact
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a trilateral defence pact in Mecca on Friday. It declares an armed attack on any one of the three an attack on all.
Iraq orders Iran-backed militias to disarm as they threaten neighbours
Iraq orders Iran-backed militias to disarm as they threaten neighbours
Iraq's leadership told Iran-backed armed groups to give up their weapons by 30 September or face terrorism charges. Al Hadath reported that at a special meeting with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi the same groups warned they intend to attack neighbouring countries within 48 hours.
US oil imports from Saudi Arabia fall to zero
US oil imports from Saudi Arabia fall to zero
Saudi crude shipments to the United States have dropped to zero for the first time in 40 years, Bloomberg reported. US refiners were buying more than 600,000 barrels of Saudi oil a day earlier this year before turning to other suppliers.
Houthi attack on Najran wounds 11 as Gulf shipping thins
Houthi attack on Najran wounds 11 as Gulf shipping thins
The Houthis said on Tuesday they had struck Najran Airport in response to Saudi drone incursions over Yemen; Saudi-led coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Maliki said they hit civilian targets in the Najran region, wounding 11 civilians including a child. Gulf shipping traffic fell after the rebels also said they had attacked a Saudi oil tanker, and the kingdom warned of escalation.
Iran warns Gulf states over energy strikes as Saudi Arabia braces for attacks
Iran warns Gulf states over energy strikes as Saudi Arabia braces for attacks
Iran has told Gulf states it would hit their energy infrastructure if the United States attacks Iranian territory again. A Saudi official said on Thursday that Riyadh expects coordinated attacks by Yemen's Houthis and Iraqi militias.
Houthi strikes on army camps kill dozens of Yemeni troops
Houthi strikes on army camps kill dozens of Yemeni troops
Houthi drones and missiles hit Yemeni government army camps in the provinces of Marib and Hadhramaut on Thursday. It is the deadliest attack since the UN-brokered truce of 2022.
CENTCOM reports 49 ships diverted since Iran blockade resumed
CENTCOM reports 49 ships diverted since Iran blockade resumed
US Central Command says the US military has rerouted 49 merchant ships since it resumed the blockade of Iran's seaports in mid-July. The running tally was posted on Thursday.
Iran and Oman near Hormuz deal that would bar US and Israeli ships
Iran and Oman near Hormuz deal that would bar US and Israeli ships
Iran said on Wednesday its talks with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz had reached their final stages. Reports on Friday say the draft would bar US and Israeli vessels and charge hostile states for passage.
Iraq struggles to pay salaries as Hormuz crisis cuts oil exports
Iraq struggles to pay salaries as Hormuz crisis cuts oil exports
Iraq's oil exports fell from 100 million barrels in February to around 32 million in May and June, according to Oil Ministry figures shown to The National and cited by the Jerusalem Post on Wednesday. Baghdad is struggling to cover public sector salaries as the Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens.
Trump says he prefers a deal as US and Iran redraft Hormuz terms
Trump says he prefers a deal as US and Iran redraft Hormuz terms
Trump said at a Nevada rally on Wednesday that he would rather reach a deal with Iran than kill people. Mediators are redrafting the June memorandum on the Strait of Hormuz; CNN puts the chance of an agreement by Friday at 50 percent.
Houthis claim strikes on two Saudi tankers in one day
Houthis claim strikes on two Saudi tankers in one day
Yemen's Houthis said on Wednesday they hit two Saudi oil tankers, the Wafa off Yanbu and the Daisy in the Gulf of Aden. Oil prices rebounded, and Saudi Arabia has not commented on the claims.
Iran says Hormuz route agreed with Oman
Iran says Hormuz route agreed with Oman
Iran announced on Wednesday that it had agreed with Oman on the coordinates of a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reports oil held a three-day drop on Thursday.
Jordan questions US security alliance as Iranian attacks increase
Jordan questions US security alliance as Iranian attacks increase
El País reported on Tuesday that Iran has stepped up attacks on Jordan, which hosts 4,000 US military personnel. The strikes have prompted rare public criticism in Jordan of its security alliance with Washington.
Houthis strike Saudi airport as Indian ship sinks off Yemen
Houthis strike Saudi airport as Indian ship sinks off Yemen
The Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia widened on Tuesday, with a claimed drone strike inside the kingdom and an Indian-flagged vessel sunk off Yemen. Saudi crude is being pushed away from the Red Sea.
Hormuz reopening talks advance as strait stays closed
Hormuz reopening talks advance as strait stays closed
US, Qatari and Omani officials say a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come within days, with draft language circulating. The waterway was still shut to shipping on Tuesday, day 158 of the US-Iran war.
Ship hit off Oman as Iran strikes US base in Kuwait
Ship hit off Oman as Iran strikes US base in Kuwait
An unidentified projectile struck a cargo vessel about 37 km northeast of Khasab, Oman, overnight into Tuesday. The Jerusalem Post reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked a US base in Kuwait with drones the same morning.
Trump calls talks Iran's 'last chance' as Tehran denies negotiating with Washington
Trump calls talks Iran's 'last chance' as Tehran denies negotiating with Washington
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that negotiations with Iran are under way and are Tehran's "last chance" before what he called a "decapitation". Iran's foreign ministry denies any contact with Washington and says it is talking only to Oman.
Trump announces US-Iran talks after calling off strike wave
Trump announces US-Iran talks after calling off strike wave
US President Donald Trump says he cancelled a planned wave of strikes on Iran and that talks with Tehran open on Monday afternoon. Iranian agencies deny any deal on the Strait of Hormuz was reached.
Kuwait says Iranian drones struck government facility
Kuwait says Iranian drones struck government facility
Kuwait's army says Iranian drones attacked a government facility in the country's north on Saturday and that air defences intercepted them. No casualties were reported.
Saudi Arabia pushes new regional order after Iran war
Saudi Arabia pushes new regional order after Iran war
States affected by the Iran war are working on a new order for the Middle East whose centre of gravity is a Sunni axis of what FAZ calls the "regional four", led by Saudi Arabia. Jacobin argues in a separate analysis that the rivalry between the rulers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is itself fuelling a series of wars beyond the Arabian Peninsula.