Symbolic imageBrent fell below $93 on Monday, 9 November, its lowest since 1 September, after Trump called renewed Iran strikes unlikely while nuclear and Hormuz talks progress. Energy stress persists in Europe, where power prices topped €600 and Britain's grid issued a rare margin notice.
The United States and Iran have been at war for almost six months. Alongside the fighting, Washington under President Donald Trump is using economic pressure and a blockade of Iranian ports to force Tehran to capitulate, while Iran works to keep its oil exports and shipping running.
Bloomberg reports that European power prices shot above €600 on Monday as wind generation slumped. Britain's grid operator Neso issued a rare electricity margin notice for gas plants to boost output, according to The Guardian.
Brent crude fell below $93 a barrel on Monday, its lowest since 1 September, after Trump said renewed strikes on Iran were unlikely. The New York Times puts the drop at about $20 since late October.
Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday, down more than 13 per cent on the week, after Republican midterm losses fed hopes of de-escalation with Iran.
Withdrawals from European storage since the heating season began are twice the five-year average, TASS reports. Gazprom says the pace may reduce deliverability, while Politika reports Germany began the season with its lowest recorded fill level.
Oil and gas prices fell on hopes of US-Iran de-escalation after the US midterms, then steadied below $100 as traders weighed Iran diplomacy and the supply outlook. Uncertainty over the war lingers.
Brent fell more than 8 percent on Wednesday to about $94-95, its lowest level in nearly two months. Investors are betting that the Republican midterm defeat lowers the risk of renewed US-Iran fighting.
Brent jumped to nearly $107 on Tuesday after reported US strikes on Qeshm, then fell below $101 on hopes of a deal. The IEA warned that gas tightness could last into 2027.
Brent crude fell sharply on Monday as Iran and the US signalled continuing contacts to end the war. The conflict is draining Gulf growth and Europe's energy reserves.
Germany's gas storage facilities are only just over 61 percent full against a target of about 70 percent, according to FAZ. The Federal Network Agency considers supply secure and relies on LNG, while storage operators warn of shortages in extreme cold.
OPEC+ nations agreed on Sunday to keep December production quotas at November levels, TASS reports, with Saudi Arabia at 10.478 million barrels a day and Russia at 9.949 million. Oil slipped more than 1% on Monday as talks continue on ending the Iran war, according to Reuters.
BP's third-quarter underlying replacement cost profit rose to $8.46bn from $2.2bn a year earlier, as the war in the Middle East pushed up oil and gas prices and refining margins, according to The Guardian. The Financial Times reports that ExxonMobil and Chevron also posted large profits and warned about diesel supplies.
Brent traded near $113 and European spot gas passed €100 per megawatt hour on Friday. Eleven EU states will release strategic oil.
France said on Thursday that Europe will release 42 million barrels of oil for short-term relief. Brent remains close to its Iran-war high.
European gas topped €100 per megawatt hour on Wednesday for the first time since 2022, on fears of renewed US strikes on Iran. The World Bank projects commodity prices up 23% this year.
Brent eased slightly to about $115 a barrel on Tuesday as Qatari diplomacy gave markets some relief. Gas prices and consumer fuel bills remain elevated.
Brent retreated on Monday from its Friday peak, but European gas rose to its highest price since 2022. US strategic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1982.
Fuel costs from the Iran war keep airfares high, while oil stocks are depleted. Iran's president says many people in the country struggle to get food.
US consumer sentiment fell to near a record low ahead of the midterm elections, Reuters reports, while Bloomberg describes it as a five-month low amid inflation worries. Business activity cooled in October but prices rose by the most since 2022, with strong demand fuelling price pressures, according to Reuters and Bloomberg.
Brent crude touched $117.45 on Friday, its highest in nearly six months, on fears of renewed US strikes on Iran and Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. European gas storage is far below normal heading into winter.
Brent rose above $110 on Gulf escalation fears, and global stocks fell on Thursday.
Brent eased from a five-month high as Middle East oil exports returned to prewar levels via alternative routes. Washington is lending heating oil and diesel from its reserves ahead of the midterms.
Brent touched $112 on Tuesday before easing, and European gas reached its highest since late 2022.
Brent eased to about $107 on Monday after touching $110, as traders weighed a US waiver on Russia sanctions against Middle East risks.
Brent crude held near $110 on Monday amid the Mideast and Ukraine conflicts, Bloomberg reports. Reuters says prices slipped on expectations of more Russian fuel after Trump's sanction waiver.
The IMF's Bangkok meetings ended on Saturday with warnings that the global economy's resilience is under strain. Bloomberg reports the ECB is leaning toward a December rate hike.
The US federal budget deficit for fiscal 2026 reached $1.99 trillion, the largest in five years, according to Bloomberg and Reuters. The New York Times attributes the rise to higher borrowing costs from higher interest rates and to Trump administration spending on the Iran war and tariff refunds.
EU leaders meeting in Brussels struggled to agree on how to bring down energy prices, Le Monde reports. Ursula von der Leyen said the EU will take six measures to stabilise energy markets, including releasing 100 million barrels of oil over the next four months, according to Politika.
Fed chair Kevin Warsh avoided signalling a rate move for October. In Bangkok on Friday, central bankers pushed back on market bets on tightening.
Oil rose above $110 for the first time since May, Bloomberg reported on Friday. Diesel and ship-fuel markets remain tight despite emergency stock releases.
The IEA will accelerate the release of its remaining emergency oil stocks, taking the total past the 400 million barrels pledged in March. Bloomberg reports that Washington told members it is unhappy.
G20 and G7 finance ministers met in Bangkok while the Iran war's energy shock feeds into bond yields and fuel supply. The IMF names a prolonged war as the biggest risk for the Middle East.
US producer prices rose 1.3% in September, far above forecasts, driven by energy costs. Retail sales also beat expectations.
Motorists have queued for hours at petrol stations across the resort island of Bali in recent days amid reports of a fuel shortage, the South China Morning Post reports. Nikkei Asia reports that the shortages have also reached other regions of Indonesia as prices climb.
A UN official warned on Wednesday that parts of Asia and Africa could face a food crisis unless Iran and the US agree within weeks on moving fertiliser through Hormuz.
The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that diesel markets will stay tight well into 2027 because of Gulf supply disruption from the Iran war. Refiners stand to earn record profits.
US inflation accelerated in September as fuel costs rose. Markets are betting on further Fed tightening.
OPEC again cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 0.2 million barrels per day, putting demand at 105.72 million bpd, according to its October report. TASS reports that OPEC+ output rose by 956,000 bpd in September, or 977,000 bpd for seven member countries, with Saudi Arabia posting the largest increase, while Politika puts Brent near $106 amid new Middle East risks.
European gas prices reached their highest level in nearly four years on Tuesday. Germany's economy ministry meanwhile plans a consumer levy for an emergency reserve.
The IMF kept its 2026 global growth forecast at 3.1% on Tuesday but said the room to absorb shocks is narrowing. Its financial stability report names bond yields and a possible AI market correction as key risks.
The rupee rose 91 paise to 95.80 per dollar in early trade on Monday, a gain of about 1%, after the RBI redirected oil dollar demand and raised the cost of some FX hedges, Reuters and The Hindu report. Indian debt funds are set to extend a $4.5 billion bond selloff after the policy shift, The Hindu reports, and banks are seeking relief and clarity, according to Reuters sources.
Brent crude rose above $106 a barrel on ICE on Monday, its first time at that level since late September, according to TASS. Politika reports that prices gained more than two percent on concerns over new attacks in Ukraine and the Middle East, after an earlier dip following an announced agreement between Moscow and Kyiv.
IMF head Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday that AI investment is keeping global growth around 3% despite the energy shock. She called AI a "slow-moving tsunami" for labour markets.
The IMF and World Bank annual meetings opened in Bangkok on Monday, dominated by the energy shock from the war with Iran. Oil rose again and India's central bank moved to defend the rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India announced a special window for state-run oil companies to meet their daily dollar needs, along with regulatory steps to support the rupee, according to The Hindu and Bloomberg. The Financial Times says the currency is nearing record lows, with energy costs pushed up by the US-Israel war on Iran.
Delta Air Lines cut its profit forecast on Friday because jet fuel will cost it an extra $6bn this year. Tanker rates have also soared.
The World Bank forecasts that the Middle East economy will shrink 2.1% in 2026 and Gulf economies 4.3%, the Jerusalem Post reports. Asian states are building oil buffers in response to the Iran war, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE joining a Japan-led push, according to Reuters and Bloomberg.
The WTO has raised its 2026 goods trade outlook, with FAZ reporting growth twice as fast as expected. Spending on AI-related goods more than offset the drag from the Middle East war, according to the New York Times, while TASS cites the report as showing Middle East LNG exports down 47% year on year in the first half.
Shell expects its refineries to make almost double the profit from every barrel of fuel, a record, as global shortages follow the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, the Guardian reports. Bloomberg says the company also sees strong oil and gas trading as the war drives price swings, and trader Vitol says the disruption creates 'huge' opportunities.
Iraq set the dinar at 1,520 per US dollar, the state news agency said, according to Reuters. Bloomberg links the devaluation to the Hormuz disruption hitting oil exports, while The National cites a cash squeeze from war and the Hormuz closure.
IMF chief Georgieva said energy prices will stay high even if the Gulf war ends. The IEA agreed to speed up its emergency oil release, diesel first.
Oil exports from the Gulf are back near 80% of prewar levels, according to Shell's chief executive. Iran keeps attacking ships in Hormuz, and Western stockpiles are nearly spent.
Iranian oil minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned amid a large drop in oil receipts, rampant inflation and a shrinking economy, The Guardian reports. According to Shana via Tehran Times, President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted the resignation and named Hamid Bovard acting minister, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, per Breitbart, that Iran will have no oil revenue this week.
Saudi Aramco's chief said on Monday that rebuilding depleted oil inventories could take up to two years. Gulf exports recovered in September.
G7 countries agreed to release 100m barrels of oil and diesel to ease prices. OPEC+ kept its November quotas unchanged on Sunday.
Washington is preparing new economic measures to force Tehran to capitulate after almost six months of war. Iran says its ports and oil output are holding up.
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