Symbolic imageEurope's drought has cut the Rhine at Kaub to a record six centimetres, halting most freight, while Hungary sinks barges to cool a reactor. Forecasters now put 95 percent odds on a very strong El Niño by late 2026.
El Niño is a recurring warming of the tropical Pacific that shifts rainfall patterns worldwide, bringing dry spells to some farming regions and heavy rain to others. Grain traders, farm agencies and importing countries track it because harvest shortfalls in several producer regions at once feed through to world food prices.
Telesur reported on Saturday that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation has a 95 percent chance of becoming very strong by late 2026. Forecasters expect effects on rainfall, farming, food supplies and markets across Latin America.
The Rhine gauge at Kaub fell to six centimetres overnight into Saturday, the lowest ever measured there, halting most freight. Hungary is sinking two barges to raise the Danube at its nuclear plant's cooling intake.
Extreme heat has pushed Europe's harvests weeks early and cut yields. Low rivers are throttling freight and reactor cooling; Britain gave farmers £65m on Friday.
The New York Times reports that El Niño has set in early this year and is already disrupting weather around the world. The peak of the pattern could still be months away.
The US Department of Agriculture made a bigger-than-expected cut to its corn yield projection on Wednesday, sending prices sharply higher. A record El Niño, expected to peak later this year, is already causing dry spells and crop failures on three continents, the New York Times reports.